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Midland Dems eye convention following Pennsylvania primary
by Kathleen Thurber
Midland Reporter-Telegram
Midland Dems eye convention following Pennsylvania primary
By Kathleen Thurber
Staff Writer
As Sen. Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary by about 10 percentage points Tuesday, Midland Democrats were preparing for June's state convention where they say the party likely still will be working to name a nominee.
Though Clinton's win brings her closer to Sen. Barack Obama's overall delegate lead, Andrew Krach, assistant professor of government at the University of Texas in Austin, said calculations clearly show neither will have the 2,024 delegates needed to clinch the nomination by the National Convention in August.
Party leaders have indicated they will push for a nominee choice by June, but local professors and Democrats agree there's no way to guarantee the race won't continue beyond that date.
"I think it's going to go down to the wire," said Craig Emmert, associate professor of political science at the University of Texas at the Permian Basin.
A recent study from Women's Voices Women Vote, a non-partisan group that encourages single women to vote, shows non-married women are the fastest growing voter group in the country and say such voters could be the ones to help decide the eventual Democratic candidate as about 66 percent report they'll vote Democrat.
And while this may have been true in Pennsylvania where Clinton won more support from white families and females, Emmert said each candidate has done well with particular voting blocs -- Obama with black voters and more affluent Democrats and Clinton with women and the white working class -- but none of the voting groups is likely to decisively tip the scales.
The only group that will be able to do that, said Cindy Rugeley, assistant professor of political science at Texas Tech, are the super delegates.
Obama currently is leading with 1,485 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,331. But, Clinton has slightly more super delegates right now bringing the totals to 1,720 for Obama to 1,590 for Clinton, according to realclearpolitics.com.
Emmert said he would be surprised if super delegates voted contrary to popular vote totals, which right now favor Obama by about 14.4 million to Clinton's about 13.9 million, according to realclearpolitics.com.
Vice chair of Midland's Democratic Party David Rosen said many groups, including single mothers and working families, are choosing a candidate based on economic policies as they struggle to pay rising gas and food prices, but Midlander's are more focused on overall Democratic policies in contrast to the Republican leadership that's currently in place.
Rugeley said like the issues, the group projected to decide the election changes frequently making it a difficult race to predict.
If the situation doesn't change drastically through the remaining primaries, Emmert said, and the super delegates argue Clinton should win the nomination anyway, the Democratic party may suffer.
Though Obama has held a slight lead in the delegate count, Emmert said he'll still need to win an upcoming primary to convince super delegates he should win the nomination.
North Carolina and Indiana both hold their primaries May 6. Clinton currently leads in Indiana by about 46 percent to Obama's 44 percent. Obama leads in North Carolina by about 51 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, according to realclearpolitics.com.
Black voters and even some youth that have supported Obama after not participating in the process in years past are less likely to weigh in on coming elections if they voted for a candidate who doesn't take the nomination despite a slight lead, Emmert said.
If the super delegates elect whoever wins the popular vote, Rugeley said, the candidate not chosen likely still will encourage their supporters to vote Democratic in the fall, especially if they have other leadership aspirations within the party.
Krach agreed and said if bridges can be built between the two camps, the drawn out election may be good preparation for the eventual candidate, but if bitter or personal attacks start dominating the race only the Republican party will benefit.
Rugeley said another big state win for Clinton Tuesday was exactly what many Texas Republicans were hoping for because the longer the Democratic race continues, the more divisive it seems to get.
Rosen, though, said Midlanders and Texans who've actively supported either candidate will unite to support the Democratic party in the fall as they're more interested in a party change than a particular candidate.
"The Democrats are very fired up," Rosen said. "Both for Obama and Clinton, but in general they're fired up, too."
Rosen spent Tuesday advising local democratic delegates about the state convention in June where he said they expect 20,000 Democrats to gather after just 8,000 attended the last convention.
Such increasing numbers, he said, could mean the voting totals are closer between the two main parties during the general election. If that's the case, he said, locals can expect to see the candidates spending more time in the state than usual, though professors agreed it will be hard for either Democrat to win in Texas.
"They say the red states are the Republican states," Rugeley said. "Texas is very, very red, there's not even any purple."
Kathleen Thurber can be reached at kthurber@mrt.com.
By Kathleen Thurber
Staff Writer
As Sen. Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary by about 10 percentage points Tuesday, Midland Democrats were preparing for June's state convention where they say the party likely still will be working to name a nominee.
Though Clinton's win brings her closer to Sen. Barack Obama's overall delegate lead, Andrew Krach, assistant professor of government at the University of Texas in Austin, said calculations clearly show neither will have the 2,024 delegates needed to clinch the nomination by the National Convention in August.
Party leaders have indicated they will push for a nominee choice by June, but local professors and Democrats agree there's no way to guarantee the race won't continue beyond that date.
"I think it's going to go down to the wire," said Craig Emmert, associate professor of political science at the University of Texas at the Permian Basin.
A recent study from Women's Voices Women Vote, a non-partisan group that encourages single women to vote, shows non-married women are the fastest growing voter group in the country and say such voters could be the ones to help decide the eventual Democratic candidate as about 66 percent report they'll vote Democrat.
And while this may have been true in Pennsylvania where Clinton won more support from white families and females, Emmert said each candidate has done well with particular voting blocs -- Obama with black voters and more affluent Democrats and Clinton with women and the white working class -- but none of the voting groups is likely to decisively tip the scales.
The only group that will be able to do that, said Cindy Rugeley, assistant professor of political science at Texas Tech, are the super delegates.
Obama currently is leading with 1,485 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,331. But, Clinton has slightly more super delegates right now bringing the totals to 1,720 for Obama to 1,590 for Clinton, according to realclearpolitics.com.
Emmert said he would be surprised if super delegates voted contrary to popular vote totals, which right now favor Obama by about 14.4 million to Clinton's about 13.9 million, according to realclearpolitics.com.
Vice chair of Midland's Democratic Party David Rosen said many groups, including single mothers and working families, are choosing a candidate based on economic policies as they struggle to pay rising gas and food prices, but Midlander's are more focused on overall Democratic policies in contrast to the Republican leadership that's currently in place.
Rugeley said like the issues, the group projected to decide the election changes frequently making it a difficult race to predict.
If the situation doesn't change drastically through the remaining primaries, Emmert said, and the super delegates argue Clinton should win the nomination anyway, the Democratic party may suffer.
Though Obama has held a slight lead in the delegate count, Emmert said he'll still need to win an upcoming primary to convince super delegates he should win the nomination.
North Carolina and Indiana both hold their primaries May 6. Clinton currently leads in Indiana by about 46 percent to Obama's 44 percent. Obama leads in North Carolina by about 51 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, according to realclearpolitics.com.
Black voters and even some youth that have supported Obama after not participating in the process in years past are less likely to weigh in on coming elections if they voted for a candidate who doesn't take the nomination despite a slight lead, Emmert said.
If the super delegates elect whoever wins the popular vote, Rugeley said, the candidate not chosen likely still will encourage their supporters to vote Democratic in the fall, especially if they have other leadership aspirations within the party.
Krach agreed and said if bridges can be built between the two camps, the drawn out election may be good preparation for the eventual candidate, but if bitter or personal attacks start dominating the race only the Republican party will benefit.
Rugeley said another big state win for Clinton Tuesday was exactly what many Texas Republicans were hoping for because the longer the Democratic race continues, the more divisive it seems to get.
Rosen, though, said Midlanders and Texans who've actively supported either candidate will unite to support the Democratic party in the fall as they're more interested in a party change than a particular candidate.
"The Democrats are very fired up," Rosen said. "Both for Obama and Clinton, but in general they're fired up, too."
Rosen spent Tuesday advising local democratic delegates about the state convention in June where he said they expect 20,000 Democrats to gather after just 8,000 attended the last convention.
Such increasing numbers, he said, could mean the voting totals are closer between the two main parties during the general election. If that's the case, he said, locals can expect to see the candidates spending more time in the state than usual, though professors agreed it will be hard for either Democrat to win in Texas.
"They say the red states are the Republican states," Rugeley said. "Texas is very, very red, there's not even any purple."
Kathleen Thurber can be reached at kthurber@mrt.com.
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