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Polls don't tell complete story for candidates
by Midland Reporter-Telegram
If you turn on your TV in the morning before work, it's easy to get the idea that the presidential race is over even before one vote has been counted. But if you take a closer look, this race might be closer than you think.
Both the Today Show on NBC and the Early Morning Show on CBS are touting double digit leads for Democratic standard bearer Barack Obama. But those polls should not force anyone to think this race is over. There still is plenty of evidence to keep things interesting for the last week of the campaign.
Polls are just polls. They have been known to be wrong for the likes of both Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan. And if you don't like one poll, look at another one. Also, note who is running the poll.
There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions. That's why we have such a wide discrepancy in polling results.
Obama and McCain essentially were tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points. A Reuters/Zogby poll also gives Obama a 10 to 12 point lead.
Then this past week the Associated Press-GfK poll came out, showing McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch. The poll found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent.
This new poll seems to support what many Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: The race narrowed after the third debate, as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
So, no matter which side you are choosing, there is little reason to be too glum or too confident. Support for either side is soft at best. Many of the polls, even those giving Obama a huge lead, say that up to 24 percent of likely voters still are persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates.
None of the polls are really sure how to factor in the race issue. Is that a factor or not? Will it work for Obama or against him or for or against McCain? That's a fair question because such issues, whether good or bad, are not easily polled.
There are still a lot of questions to be decided for voters before Nov. 4. Will it be an Obama landslide, another McCain comeback or something in between? Stay tuned.
Both the Today Show on NBC and the Early Morning Show on CBS are touting double digit leads for Democratic standard bearer Barack Obama. But those polls should not force anyone to think this race is over. There still is plenty of evidence to keep things interesting for the last week of the campaign.
Polls are just polls. They have been known to be wrong for the likes of both Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan. And if you don't like one poll, look at another one. Also, note who is running the poll.
There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions. That's why we have such a wide discrepancy in polling results.
Obama and McCain essentially were tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points. A Reuters/Zogby poll also gives Obama a 10 to 12 point lead.
Then this past week the Associated Press-GfK poll came out, showing McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch. The poll found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent.
This new poll seems to support what many Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: The race narrowed after the third debate, as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
So, no matter which side you are choosing, there is little reason to be too glum or too confident. Support for either side is soft at best. Many of the polls, even those giving Obama a huge lead, say that up to 24 percent of likely voters still are persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates.
None of the polls are really sure how to factor in the race issue. Is that a factor or not? Will it work for Obama or against him or for or against McCain? That's a fair question because such issues, whether good or bad, are not easily polled.
There are still a lot of questions to be decided for voters before Nov. 4. Will it be an Obama landslide, another McCain comeback or something in between? Stay tuned.
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Bill wrote on Oct 30, 2008 4:12 PM: